Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science
The Open Science Collaboration replicated 100 experimental and correlational studies from three psychology journals, using high-powered designs and original materials where available. The headline numbers are the ones that reshaped the field. Replication effects were half the magnitude of the originals. Ninety-seven per cent of the original studies reported statistically significant results, against thirty-six per cent of the replications. Forty-seven per cent of original effect sizes fell within the confidence interval of the replication effect, and thirty-nine per cent of effects were subjectively rated as having replicated. Assuming no bias in the original results, combining original and replication data left sixty-eight per cent statistically significant. Replication success was better predicted by the strength of the original evidence than by any characteristic of the original or replication teams. This publication cites it as the reference point for how much weight a single striking psychological finding can carry.
The Open Science Collaboration replicated 100 experimental and correlational studies from three psychology journals, using high-powered designs and original materials where available. The headline numbers are the ones that reshaped the field. Replication effects were half the magnitude of the originals. Ninety-seven per cent of the original studies reported statistically significant results, against thirty-six per cent of the replications. Forty-seven per cent of original effect sizes fell within the confidence interval of the replication effect, and thirty-nine per cent of effects were subjectively rated as having replicated. Assuming no bias in the original results, combining original and replication data left sixty-eight per cent statistically significant. Replication success was better predicted by the strength of the original evidence than by any characteristic of the original or replication teams. This publication cites it as the reference point for how much weight a single striking psychological finding can carry.
Written from the abstract, OpenAlex.
What our sources record
Reproduced as it was written when this source was checked, figures and all.
100 studies; 97% of originals significant, 36% of replications significant; mean replication r = 0.197 against original r = 0.403.
Where we use it
- What Forty-One Participants Buys, Why We Look
Reliability of this reference
The link below was matched against the publisher's record on title, first author and year, and all three agree.
The source
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4716
DOI: 10.1126/science.aac4716