Anomalies: the winner’s curse
Credits Capen, Clapp and Campbell with first discussion; 1969 Alaska North Slope sale, winning bids $900 million against $370 million second-highest, winner at least 4 times second bid on 26 per cent of tracts and at least twice on 77 per cent; Kagel and Levin small groups 65.1 per cent of predicted profit, large groups loss of $0.88 per period against predicted $4.68 profit.
Credits Capen, Clapp and Campbell with first discussion; 1969 Alaska North Slope sale, winning bids $900 million against $370 million second-highest, winner at least 4 times second bid on 26 per cent of tracts and at least twice on 77 per cent; Kagel and Levin small groups 65.1 per cent of predicted profit, large groups loss of $0.88 per period against predicted $4.68 profit.
Written from the full text read 2026-10-12.
What our sources record
Reproduced as it was written when this source was checked, figures and all.
doi:10.1257/jep.2.1.191. Full text read: credits Capen, Clapp and Campbell with first discussion; 1969 Alaska North Slope sale, winning bids $900 million against $370 million second-highest, winner at least 4 times second bid on 26 per cent of tracts and at least twice on 77 per cent; Kagel and Levin small groups 65.1 per cent of predicted profit, large groups loss of $0.88 per period against predicted $4.68 profit.