Contingent Recency Effect
The finding that a recent rare event can move estimates and choices in opposite directions.
What it is
Barron and Yechiam found that after a rare event, people's estimates showed negative recency, judging the event less likely, while their choices showed positive recency, becoming more cautious. In their field study, right after a rare and distressing event, risk was judged lower while behaviour grew more careful. The same experiments found that rare events were overestimated in judgments and underweighted in choices from experience.
In effect
In the article on recency bias, it is the case where the latest event pulls two outputs of the same person in different directions.
What it does not say
It does not say that estimates and choices always diverge; the pattern was found in specific laboratory tasks and one field setting.
Sources
- Barron, G., & Yechiam, E. (2009). The coexistence of overestimation and underweighting of rare events and the contingent recency effect. Judgment and Decision Making, 4(6), 447-460.