The Illusion of Validity

The Illusion of Validity

Reviewed by Faisal Zaidi

Confidence in a judgment that tracks how coherent the evidence looks rather than how much of it there is. The phrase reaches this site through the online ratings literature.

What it is

A tidy number, a clean pattern or a consistent story produces confidence that does not depend on whether the underlying data could support it. The feeling of knowing arrives before the check that would justify it.