Ruth Beyth

Who they are

The work of Ruth Beyth reaches this site through the paper listed below. On this site the name is tied to Hindsight Bias.

Key papers

Fischhoff, B., & Beyth, R. (1975). I knew it would happen. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 13(1), 1-16. What it reports: Before a pair of state visits, people gave probabilities to possible outcomes and later recalled them. Outcomes that occurred were recalled as having been rated more likely, and outcomes that did not occur as less likely.

Key ideas

Hindsight Bias: Once you know how something turned out, you lose the ability to reconstruct what you believed before you knew.

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