The coexistence of overestimation and underweighting of rare events and the contingent recency effect
Barron and Yechiam, Judgment and Decision Making 4(6), 2009, 447-460. Three laboratory experiments and a field study. People overestimate rare events in judgments and underweight them in decisions from experience; both can coexist. Contingent recency effect: estimates showed negative recency, choices positive recency. In the field study, right after a rare and distressing event, risk was judged lower while behaviour grew more cautious. Remaining findings match error and small-sample mechanisms in choice.
Barron and Yechiam, Judgment and Decision Making 4(6), 2009, 447-460. Three laboratory experiments and a field study. People overestimate rare events in judgments and underweight them in decisions from experience; both can coexist. Contingent recency effect: estimates showed negative recency, choices positive recency. In the field study, right after a rare and distressing event, risk was judged lower while behaviour grew more cautious. Remaining findings match error and small-sample mechanisms in choice.
Written from the abstract.
What our sources record
Recorded when this source was checked, figures included, with page references and quotation marks removed.
Barron, G., & Yechiam, E. (2009). The coexistence of overestimation and underweighting of rare events and the contingent recency effect. Judgment and Decision Making, 4(6), 447-460. doi:10.1017/S1930297500003983 https://doi.org/10.1017/S1930297500003983