The predictive validity of the strange situation procedure: Evidence from registered analyses of two landmark longitudinal studies
Nivison and colleagues asked how much infant attachment really predicts, and did it the hard way: registered analyses of two landmark longitudinal studies, the Minnesota study of risk and adaptation and the American national study of early child care, using composite measures built from teacher, mother and self-reports across time. Their starting point is that the existing meta-analyses show modest associations and carry evidence of publication bias. What they found is weaker still. In one sample the associations were comparable to or slightly below the published meta-analytic figures; in the other they were weaker. Once four basic demographic factors were accounted for, every association between infant attachment and later socioemotional outcomes fell to a small size. The finding matters because the Strange Situation is treated as a foundational measure whose predictive power is assumed rather than examined. This vault cites it whenever an infant classification is used to explain something years later.
Nivison and colleagues asked how much infant attachment really predicts, and did it the hard way: registered analyses of two landmark longitudinal studies, the Minnesota study of risk and adaptation and the American national study of early child care, using composite measures built from teacher, mother and self-reports across time. Their starting point is that the existing meta-analyses show modest associations and carry evidence of publication bias. What they found is weaker still. In one sample the associations were comparable to or slightly below the published meta-analytic figures; in the other they were weaker. Once four basic demographic factors were accounted for, every association between infant attachment and later socioemotional outcomes fell to a small size. The finding matters because the Strange Situation is treated as a foundational measure whose predictive power is assumed rather than examined. This vault cites it whenever an infant classification is used to explain something years later.
Written from the abstract, OpenAlex.
What our sources record
Reproduced as it was written when this source was checked, figures and all.
Caldo, P. D., Magro, S. W., Raby, K. L., Groh, A. M., Vandell, D. L., Booth-LaForce, C., Fraley, R. C., Carlson, E. A., Simpson, J. A., & Roisman, G. I. (2023). 'The predictive validity of the Strange Situation Procedure: evidence from registered analyses of two landmark longitudinal studies.' Development and Psychopathology, 37(1), 147-163. Preregistered analyses of the Minnesota Longitudinal Study of Risk and Adaptation and the NICHD SECCYD. Controlling for four demographic covariates, partial correlations between infant attachment and all socioemotional outcomes were r of .10 to .15 or below in both samples. Associations with academic skills were comparable to or larger than those with socioemotional outcomes.
Where we use it
- What the Crib Actually Decides, Why We Care
Reliability of this reference
The link below is the right work, with one detail that does not line up. Title, venue and journal issue match, but the first author is Nivison, M.; Caldo, P. D. is the second author. Published online 13 Dec 2023, issue 37(1) 2025. Worth opening before quoting a figure from it.
The source
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0954579423001487
DOI: 10.1017/S0954579423001487