Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty
Fischhoff, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 1(3), 1975, 288-299. Participants rated the likelihood of possible outcomes of described events; those told the true outcome judged it more probable than those not told, and asking them to disregard it did not remove the effect.
Fischhoff, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 1(3), 1975, 288-299. Participants rated the likelihood of possible outcomes of described events; those told the true outcome judged it more probable than those not told, and asking them to disregard it did not remove the effect.
Written from the secondary published account plus bibliographic record (Crossref; no deposited abstract).
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Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288-299. doi:10.1037/0096-1523.1.3.288 https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-1523.1.3.288