I knew it would happen

Fischhoff (1975) · Organizational Behavior and Human Performance · Read the paper

Fischhoff and Beyth, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 13(1), 1975, 1-16. As described in Thinking, Fast and Slow: before a pair of state visits, people gave probabilities to fifteen possible outcomes and later recalled them; outcomes that occurred were recalled as having been rated more likely, outcomes that did not occur as less likely.

Fischhoff and Beyth, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 13(1), 1975, 1-16. As described in Thinking, Fast and Slow: before a pair of state visits, people gave probabilities to fifteen possible outcomes and later recalled them; outcomes that occurred were recalled as having been rated more likely, outcomes that did not occur as less likely.

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Fischhoff, B., & Beyth, R. (1975). I knew it would happen. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 13(1), 1-16. doi:10.1016/0030-5073(75)90002-1 https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(75)90002-1