Delusions of Success: Comment on Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman
Flyvbjerg comments on the Harvard Business Review article by Lovallo and Kahneman, praising its account of overoptimism, anchoring, competitor neglect and the outside view in forecasting. He argues that the article underrates one source of forecasting bias, the deliberate shaping of forecasts to get ventures started.
Flyvbjerg comments on the Harvard Business Review article by Lovallo and Kahneman, praising its account of overoptimism, anchoring, competitor neglect and the outside view in forecasting. He argues that the article underrates one source of forecasting bias, the deliberate shaping of forecasts to get ventures started.
Written from the abstract read 2026-10-25 via OpenAlex.
What our sources record
Recorded when this source was checked, figures included, with page references and quotation marks removed.
Flyvbjerg, B. (2003). Delusions of success: Comment on Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman. Harvard Business Review, December 2003, 121-122.