Why (and When) Are Uncertain Price Promotions More Effective Than Equivalent Sure Discounts?
Celia Gaertig and Joseph Simmons tested why a chance at a reward, such as a small chance of getting a product free, often beats a sure discount worth the same on average. Across five studies with nearly nine thousand participants, they found the uncertain promotion did better only when the sure discount was, or seemed, trivial. It gained ground when the sure discount was actually smaller, when it was shown beside a larger discount, and when it was written as a percentage rather than a cash amount. The authors report that these findings are inconsistent with the two leading explanations, that the step from paying something to paying nothing feels larger than it is, and that people overweight small chances, and that preferences for the uncertain offer track how big the sure outcome looks more closely than they track the chance of winning. The outcomes are choices and stated willingness within studies, not retailer revenue, and the paper was published in 2025.
Celia Gaertig and Joseph Simmons tested why a chance at a reward, such as a small chance of getting a product free, often beats a sure discount worth the same on average. Across five studies with nearly nine thousand participants, they found the uncertain promotion did better only when the sure discount was, or seemed, trivial. It gained ground when the sure discount was actually smaller, when it was shown beside a larger discount, and when it was written as a percentage rather than a cash amount. The authors report that these findings are inconsistent with the two leading explanations, that the step from paying something to paying nothing feels larger than it is, and that people overweight small chances, and that preferences for the uncertain offer track how big the sure outcome looks more closely than they track the chance of winning. The outcomes are choices and stated willingness within studies, not retailer revenue, and the paper was published in 2025.
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What our sources record
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Gaertig, C., & Simmons, J. P. (2025). 'Why (and when) are uncertain price promotions more effective than equivalent sure discounts?' Journal of Consumer Research, 52(5), 1022-1042. Five studies, N = 8,969; probabilistic price promotions are more effective than equivalent sure discounts only when those sure discounts are or seem trivial, demonstrated when sure discounts are actually smaller, when made to feel smaller by presenting them alongside a larger discount, and when framed as a percentage rather than a dollar amount; the findings are inconsistent with diminishing sensitivity and with the overweighting of small probabilities, and preferences for uncertainty are more strongly tethered to the perceived size of the sure outcome than to the chance of winning. Verified at the published record 2026-10-06. doi:10.1093/jcr/ucaf036
Where we use it
- When Uncertain Discounts Work, Why We Act
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The link below was matched against the publisher's record on title, first author and year, and all three agree.
The source
https://doi.org/10.1093/jcr/ucaf036
DOI: 10.1093/jcr/ucaf036