The irrational hungry judge effect revisited: Simulations reveal that the magnitude of the effect is overestimated
Glockner re-examined the parole-board result of Danziger and colleagues, in which the probability of a favourable ruling falls across a session and recovers after a food break. A simulation shows that the order effect can arise as a statistical artefact, because favourable rulings take longer than unfavourable ones. A hypothetical rational judge who plans ahead minimally and ends a session rather than start a case expected to run long would produce an effect of similar size, and one methodological detail enlarges the artefact even without foresight. The paper recommends more use of simulations to find non-obvious rational explanations.
Glockner re-examined the parole-board result of Danziger and colleagues, in which the probability of a favourable ruling falls across a session and recovers after a food break. A simulation shows that the order effect can arise as a statistical artefact, because favourable rulings take longer than unfavourable ones. A hypothetical rational judge who plans ahead minimally and ends a session rather than start a case expected to run long would produce an effect of similar size, and one methodological detail enlarges the artefact even without foresight. The paper recommends more use of simulations to find non-obvious rational explanations.
Written from the abstract read 2026-10-25 via OpenAlex.
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Glöckner, A. (2016). The irrational hungry judge effect revisited: Simulations reveal that the magnitude of the effect is overestimated. Judgment and Decision Making, 11(6), 601-610. doi:10.1017/S1930297500004812