Unrealistic optimism about future life events: A cautionary note
Harris and Hahn challenge the reading that people who judge negative events as less likely for themselves than for the average person are unrealistically optimistic. They argue that unbiased responding can produce the same data pattern for statistical reasons, including sampling constraints, the response scales used and the relative rarity of truly negative events. They conclude that this raises doubt about whether an optimistic bias about risk exists and that, if it does, its magnitude, mechanisms and moderators are less well understood than assumed.
Harris and Hahn challenge the reading that people who judge negative events as less likely for themselves than for the average person are unrealistically optimistic. They argue that unbiased responding can produce the same data pattern for statistical reasons, including sampling constraints, the response scales used and the relative rarity of truly negative events. They conclude that this raises doubt about whether an optimistic bias about risk exists and that, if it does, its magnitude, mechanisms and moderators are less well understood than assumed.
Written from the abstract, Cardiff University repository record and journal record, 2026-11-03.
What our sources record
Recorded when this source was checked, figures included, with page references and quotation marks removed.
Harris, A. J. L., & Hahn, U. (2011). Unrealistic optimism about future life events: A cautionary note. Psychological Review, 118(1), 135-154. doi:10.1037/a0020997 https://doi.org/10.1037/a0020997