Unskilled, unaware, or both? The better-than-average heuristic and statistical regression predict errors in estimates of own performance.
Krueger and Mueller take up the finding that people who score low on a performance test overestimate their performance relative to others, while high scorers slightly underestimate theirs. Kruger and Dunning had attributed these asymmetric errors to differences in metacognitive skill. In a replication, Krueger and Mueller found no evidence of mediation by any of several candidate variables. They argue that the asymmetry is expected from statistical regression and the general better-than-average heuristic, and report that errors were no longer asymmetric when either regression or the better-than-average effect was statistically removed. They add that high performers, not low ones, were more error prone, because they were more likely to neglect their own estimates of other people's performance when judging their standing.
Krueger and Mueller take up the finding that people who score low on a performance test overestimate their performance relative to others, while high scorers slightly underestimate theirs. Kruger and Dunning had attributed these asymmetric errors to differences in metacognitive skill. In a replication, Krueger and Mueller found no evidence of mediation by any of several candidate variables. They argue that the asymmetry is expected from statistical regression and the general better-than-average heuristic, and report that errors were no longer asymmetric when either regression or the better-than-average effect was statistically removed. They add that high performers, not low ones, were more error prone, because they were more likely to neglect their own estimates of other people's performance when judging their standing.
Written from the abstract, Europe PMC record (PubMed 11831408), read 2026-10-25.
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Krueger, J., & Mueller, R. A. (2002). Unskilled, unaware, or both? The better-than-average heuristic and statistical regression predict errors in estimates of own performance. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 82(2), 180-188. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.82.2.180