‘Dunbar's number’ deconstructed
Lindenfors, Wartel and Lind test whether there is statistical support for the widespread belief that humans can maintain stable relationships with approximately 150 people, a figure originating in an extrapolation of the regression between relative neocortex size and group size in primates. Analysing complementary datasets with different accepted methods, they obtain wildly different numbers: Bayesian methods give average group sizes between sixty-nine and 109, and generalised least-squares phylogenetic methods give between sixteen and forty-two. The confidence intervals around those estimates run from four to 520 and from two to 336 respectively, which the authors say implies that specifying any one number is futile. Their conclusion is narrow and decisive: a cognitive limit on human group size cannot be derived in this manner. This publication treats the paper as removing the derivation and not the phenomenon, and holds the layered-network evidence separately.
Lindenfors, Wartel and Lind test whether there is statistical support for the widespread belief that humans can maintain stable relationships with approximately 150 people, a figure originating in an extrapolation of the regression between relative neocortex size and group size in primates. Analysing complementary datasets with different accepted methods, they obtain wildly different numbers: Bayesian methods give average group sizes between sixty-nine and 109, and generalised least-squares phylogenetic methods give between sixteen and forty-two. The confidence intervals around those estimates run from four to 520 and from two to 336 respectively, which the authors say implies that specifying any one number is futile. Their conclusion is narrow and decisive: a cognitive limit on human group size cannot be derived in this manner. This publication treats the paper as removing the derivation and not the phenomenon, and holds the layered-network evidence separately.
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Lindenfors, P., Wartel, A., & Lind, J. (2021). 'Dunbar's number deconstructed.' Biology Letters, 17(5), 20210158. Bayesian and phylogenetic generalised least-squares methods give average group sizes of 69-109 and 16-42 respectively, with 95 per cent confidence intervals of 4-520 and 2-336; the authors conclude that specifying any one number is futile and a cognitive limit on human group size cannot be derived in this manner. doi:10.1098/rsbl.2021.0158
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- How Many Friends You Can Actually Keep, Why We Gather
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https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2021.0158
DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2021.0158