One swallow doesn
Maniadis, Tufano and List present new evidence on the strength of anchoring results in economic valuation, and use the case to make a wider methodological argument. Their theoretical framework sets out why a single striking empirical finding deserves less confidence than its citation count implies: the rate of false positives depends not only on the significance level reported, but on statistical power, on how plausible the hypothesis was beforehand, and on how many researchers are exploring the same question. The practical conclusion is the useful one. A few independent replications raise the probability that an original finding is true far more than any amount of citation does. The paper is one of the reasons this publication treats the arbitrary-anchor version of the effect as disputed rather than established.
Maniadis, Tufano and List present new evidence on the strength of anchoring results in economic valuation, and use the case to make a wider methodological argument. Their theoretical framework sets out why a single striking empirical finding deserves less confidence than its citation count implies: the rate of false positives depends not only on the significance level reported, but on statistical power, on how plausible the hypothesis was beforehand, and on how many researchers are exploring the same question. The practical conclusion is the useful one. A few independent replications raise the probability that an original finding is true far more than any amount of citation does. The paper is one of the reasons this publication treats the arbitrary-anchor version of the effect as disputed rather than established.
Written from the abstract, OpenAlex.
What our sources record
Reproduced as it was written when this source was checked, figures and all.
t make a summer: New evidence on anchoring effects.' American Economic Review, 104(1), 277-290. doi:10.1257/aer.104.1.277
Where we use it
- Why the First Price You See Decides What You Pay, Why We Act
Reliability of this reference
No persistent link has been resolved for this source yet.
The source
No link available. The citation as the article records it:
Maniadis, Z., Tufano, F., & List, J. A. (2014). 'One swallow doesn't make a summer: New evidence on anchoring effects.' American Economic Review, 104(1), 277-290. doi:10.1257/aer.104.1.277