The Dunning-Kruger effect revisited
Mazor and Fleming comment on a rational model of the Dunning-Kruger effect. They explain that regression to the mean can arise inside a single rational observer, who pulls surprising results towards a prior expectation, so that a model with identical insight at every skill level can still produce a group-level effect. A second model, in which low performance goes with noisier self-estimates, fitted the online data better, so shrinkage alone does not account for the pattern. They add that standard models of decision-making predict greater uncertainty in low performers without any extra metacognitive deficit, so the effect may reflect a single burden rather than a double one, and they suggest trial-by-trial confidence data as the next test.
Mazor and Fleming comment on a rational model of the Dunning-Kruger effect. They explain that regression to the mean can arise inside a single rational observer, who pulls surprising results towards a prior expectation, so that a model with identical insight at every skill level can still produce a group-level effect. A second model, in which low performance goes with noisier self-estimates, fitted the online data better, so shrinkage alone does not account for the pattern. They add that standard models of decision-making predict greater uncertainty in low performers without any extra metacognitive deficit, so the effect may reflect a single burden rather than a double one, and they suggest trial-by-trial confidence data as the next test.
Written from the text of the authors' accepted manuscript, UCL repository.
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Mazor, M., & Fleming, S. M. (2021). 'The Dunning-Kruger effect revisited.' Nature Human Behaviour, 5(6), 677-678. doi:10.1038/s41562-021-01101-z