Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature
Allan Murphy and Robert Winkler summarise results from operational and experimental programmes in the United States in which forecasters gave subjective probability forecasts of whether precipitation would occur and of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures. They conclude that weather forecasters can formulate such forecasts in a reliable manner, meaning that stated probabilities match how often the events happen.
Allan Murphy and Robert Winkler summarise results from operational and experimental programmes in the United States in which forecasters gave subjective probability forecasts of whether precipitation would occur and of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures. They conclude that weather forecasters can formulate such forecasts in a reliable manner, meaning that stated probabilities match how often the events happen.
Written from the abstract read 2026-10-21.
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Series C (Applied Statistics), 26(1), 41-47. doi:10.2307/2346866