Taking stock of unrealistic optimism
Shepperd, Klein, Waters and Weinstein review about three decades of research. They note that terms such as unrealistic optimism and optimistic bias refer to related but distinct concepts, and propose four types defined by measurement approach: absolute unrealistic optimism at the individual and group levels, and comparative unrealistic optimism at the individual and group levels. They argue that the methodological criticisms apply mainly to the group form of comparative optimism and that even there the problems are less serious than they appear, and they outline boundary conditions for each type and five broad questions for future work.
Shepperd, Klein, Waters and Weinstein review about three decades of research. They note that terms such as unrealistic optimism and optimistic bias refer to related but distinct concepts, and propose four types defined by measurement approach: absolute unrealistic optimism at the individual and group levels, and comparative unrealistic optimism at the individual and group levels. They argue that the methodological criticisms apply mainly to the group form of comparative optimism and that even there the problems are less serious than they appear, and they outline boundary conditions for each type and five broad questions for future work.
Written from the abstract, Washington University profile record and journal record, 2026-11-03.
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Shepperd, J. A., Klein, W. M. P., Waters, E. A., & Weinstein, N. D. (2013). Taking stock of unrealistic optimism. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 8(4), 395-411. doi:10.1177/1745691613485247 https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691613485247