On the self-erasing nature of errors of prediction
Sherman's 1980 experiments asked people to predict whether they would volunteer to collect money for a charity. The 1999 review by Spangenberg and Greenwald tabulates one experiment with 91 participants: 48 per cent of the group asked to predict said they would volunteer, 31 per cent of that group did, and 4 per cent of a control group that had not been asked did. The title of the paper states the idea that errors of prediction can erase themselves.
Sherman's 1980 experiments asked people to predict whether they would volunteer to collect money for a charity. The 1999 review by Spangenberg and Greenwald tabulates one experiment with 91 participants: 48 per cent of the group asked to predict said they would volunteer, 31 per cent of that group did, and 4 per cent of a control group that had not been asked did. The title of the paper states the idea that errors of prediction can erase themselves.
Written from the secondary report: Spangenberg and Greenwald 1999 review (full text) and journal record, 2026-11-02.
What our sources record
Recorded when this source was checked, figures included, with page references and quotation marks removed.
Sherman, S. J. (1980). On the self-erasing nature of errors of prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39(2), 211-221. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.39.2.211 https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.39.2.211