The Effects of Weather on Retail Sales
Martha Starr-McCluer tests the view that weather explains monthly swings in consumer spending. Her model treats weather as a change in how productive time is for shopping and recreation, which through time and budget constraints can shift spending among goods and across periods. Using monthly retail sales and National Weather Service data, she finds that unusual weather has a modest but significant effect on monthly sales fluctuations, that lagged effects often offset the initial effect, and that the influence largely disappears at a quarterly frequency.
Martha Starr-McCluer tests the view that weather explains monthly swings in consumer spending. Her model treats weather as a change in how productive time is for shopping and recreation, which through time and budget constraints can shift spending among goods and across periods. Using monthly retail sales and National Weather Service data, she finds that unusual weather has a modest but significant effect on monthly sales fluctuations, that lagged effects often offset the initial effect, and that the influence largely disappears at a quarterly frequency.
Written from the abstract read 2026-10-21.
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Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-8, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.