Revisiting Francis Galton's Forecasting Competition
Wallis revisits the data from the weight-judging contest that Francis Galton described in a 1907 article. After correcting errors in the original records, the paper shows that the contest anticipates two later developments in forecasting. The first is forecast combination, where the average of the guesses comes out matching the actual result exactly. The second is the use of two-piece distributions to describe asymmetry in frequencies and probabilities.
Wallis revisits the data from the weight-judging contest that Francis Galton described in a 1907 article. After correcting errors in the original records, the paper shows that the contest anticipates two later developments in forecasting. The first is forecast combination, where the average of the guesses comes out matching the actual result exactly. The second is the use of two-piece distributions to describe asymmetry in frequencies and probabilities.
Written from the abstract, Semantic Scholar record.
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Wallis, K. F. (2014). Revisiting Francis Galton's Forecasting Competition. Statistical Science, 29(3), 420-424. doi:10.1214/14-STS468