Adaptive redundancy, denominator neglect, and the base-rate fallacy
Wolfe's open peer commentary sets out the prediction that nested or overlapping class-inclusion relations create processing interference, leading people to act as if they ignore marginal denominators in a two-by-two table. He argues that ignoring marginal denominators leads to fallacies in base-rate problems and also affects conjunctive and disjunctive probability estimates.
Wolfe's open peer commentary sets out the prediction that nested or overlapping class-inclusion relations create processing interference, leading people to act as if they ignore marginal denominators in a two-by-two table. He argues that ignoring marginal denominators leads to fallacies in base-rate problems and also affects conjunctive and disjunctive probability estimates.
Written from the abstract, Cambridge Core record, 2026-10-31.
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Wolfe, C. R. (2007). Adaptive redundancy, denominator neglect, and the base-rate fallacy. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 30(3), 286-287. doi:10.1017/S0140525X07001951 https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X07001951